Paths for Cuba by unknow

Author:unknow
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Fiction & Literature, Literary Theory & Criticism, Caribbean & West Indian, Nonfiction, Social & Cultural Studies, Political Science, Government, Communism & Socialism, History
ISBN: 9780822986416
Publisher: University of Pittsburgh Press
Published: 2019-01-08T05:00:00+00:00

Other variables have effects in the expected direction: a higher level of development has not increased the likelihood of transitions,19 but an increase in the level of development has favored a higher level of democracy among competitive regimes in the post-1977 period. Increases in the rate of economic growth and in the share of the labor force in manufacturing boost democracy, while an increase in reliance on fuel and mineral exports weakens it.20 The only variable that presents an unexpected effect is the influence of increases in the level of democracy among neighbors, which counterintuitively are associated with a decrease in the level of democracy in the given country. Although democratic neighbors help promote transitions to democracy, countries follow independent and often contradictory trajectories after their transitions take place.

The estimates in table 7.1 suggest that regime legacies are one of the main factors that explain the post-1978 level of democracy. An authoritarian past did not prevent Latin American countries from developing competitive political regimes in the post-1977 period, but it did tend to limit the quality of democracy. Countries with a past democratic heritage had a significant advantage in building a high-quality democracy in contemporary Latin America. This is true even when, such as in Chile (1973–1990) and Uruguay (1973–1985), military dictatorships attempted to radically stamp out the democratic past.

WHY PAST REGIMES MATTER FOR THE FUTURE

In short, a democratic past predicts a high post-transition level of democracy in the post-1977 period; this finding augurs poorly for Cuba. The statistical results, however, do not explain the causal mechanism that lies behind the impact of regime heritage on the contemporary level of democracy. Our finding about the enduring impact of early democratization has some similarities to arguments about path dependence in social science.21 Levi defines path dependence as meaning that “once a country or region has started down a track, the costs of reversal are very high.” Events in one historical moment greatly alter the distribution of possible and probable outcomes into the long-term future.22

Our statistical results show a similar story: the early history of political regimes affects the current level of democracy. Two countries similar on all other independent variables would have different predicted levels of democracy today if one had a more democratic past than the other. However, a claim about path dependence does not indicate how regime legacies are reproduced over time.

In Latin America, regime change in every country except Colombia, Costa Rica, and Cuba since the 1970s undermines strong claims about path dependence. Authoritarian disruptions in countries with long democratic traditions, such as the ones that occurred in Chile (1973–1990) and Uruguay (1973–1984), involved sudden profound ruptures rather than a linear history. Likewise, in the post-1977 period, several countries (Bolivia, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Paraguay) shifted from almost uninterrupted histories of authoritarian rule to somewhat durable competitive regimes (Nicaragua, until the authoritarian turn in the 2010s). The latter pattern of change is of crucial importance for the Cuban case. Path dependence cannot explain so many radical departures from the past.

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